Beginning with the development of the compass, Ruling the Waves examines a series of technological revolutions that promised, in their time, to transform the world's politics and business. With Debora Spar's gifted storytelling, each chapter reads like an adventure tale as she recounts the histories of the printing press and maps; of the telegraph, radio, and satellite television; of software, encryption, and the advent of digital music. At each of these junctures Spar suggests that invention led to both a wave of commerce and of chaos. Entrepreneurs such as Samuel Morse and Rupert Murdoch carved new markets from the emerging technology and proclaimed that the old rules no longer applied. And for a while, they were right. But eventually--and inevitably--even cowboys need rules of property, rules of coordination, rules of competition. The erstwhile pioneers thus turn to government, lobbying for order and setting the stage for the next wave of discovery. A fascinating history of business, Ruling the Waves is also an original, thought-provoking analysis of the parallels between past innovations and inventions and our own tumultuous times.
_Ruling the Waves_ by Debora L. Spar is a fascinating book on the history of business and politics in the fields of emerging technologies, one I honestly feel everyone should read, as it is invaluable for the sense of context and perspective it provides.
Much has been made about how truly revolutionary the internet is, how that its very existence breaks all the old rules, that it is going to steer the world towards a new social order, perhaps even sever the link between the market and the state. Many prophets have proclaimed how the internet will create a realm where government has no force, where big business is powerless, and where many things - such as music - will essentially be free.
Spar readily acknowledges that the net is indeed radical and that it will produce many changes in society, politics, government, and business. However, she sought through this book to show that the emergence of the internet is not without precedent, that it is perhaps just another arc along technology's frontier. By comparing the changes brought about by the development of transoceanic commerce during the Age of Exploration and the arrival of the telegraph, radio, satellite television, and publicly available encryption technology with the rise (and possible fall) of Microsoft (looking at both the issue of operating systems and web browsers) and the advent of MP3 technology, Spar showed how the worlds of government and commerce have coped again and again with what were at the time paradigm-shattering revolutionary developments. The end of the dominance of big business and government has been predicted several times before and in each case the prophets were wrong. In truth, there were significant changes and for a time governments were more or less powerless in some instances thanks to a gap between technology and policy, but these gaps did not last for long. While new technologies can wound government, they never kill it, and the very pirates and pioneers who for a time gleefully predicted its demise (or at least its powerlessness over them and their new realm of business) have in the end craved the stability and order offered by government. In essence, once they staked their claim in a new technological frontier, they wanted someone to protect that stake.
Each of these revolutions followed a predictable pattern as Spar brilliantly showed, beginning the book with an overview of this pattern and then in the following chapters showing how this pattern was followed in each instance (and along the way providing some fascinating history and anecdotes). The first phase is that of innovation, the stage of "tinkerers and inventors," not a phase marked by much if any commerce. It is populated by people interested in technology for its own sake, a world of fellow enthusiasts. Often in this early stage the new technology and its adherents are either largely unknown to the public or not accorded much respect. When Samuel Morse first demonstrated the telegraph to Congress in 1838, many just laughed. Generally in this stage most if not everyone involved is unaware of any real commercial use for the new technology; when the radio first appeared it was seen as perhaps a useful adjunct to the telegraph, a way to communicate with ships at sea, not as a mass market for broadcasting music.
The second phase is populated by pioneers, individuals who have moved into the new technological frontier and have seen ways to make profits - often very large profits - from the new technology, carving new empires and entire new fields of commerce where previously none had existed, out of the reach of government and existing businesses. This phase is truly frontier-like; speed is essential, as many scramble to stake their claim, the individuals in question often being quite young (Marconi was 20 when he started marketing his radio in the UK while Marc Andreessen was 23 when he founded Netscape). Pirates exist of course too, drawn by the new wealth and near complete lack of rules. There is little to stop them as public policy simply has not caught up yet with the new frontier (such as when Rupert Murdoch started to broadcast satellite TV into the tightly controlled British market in the early 1980s).
The third phase is what she termed creative anarchy. This is the stage when the pioneers, those who are seeking to make a profit, start to demand rules. Property rights for instance are not an issue in the first phase, as many early inventors -such as with the telegraph or the internet - essentially distributed their breakthroughs for free. As the technology matures and early pioneers establish profitable enterprises in the new frontier, they seek protection from the chaos and pirates of the second phase. For instance while the relatively few users of radio in the 1910s could transmit signals to their heart's content as the radio waves seemed infinite and owned by none, by the 1920s established radio stations were keen to protect their stretch of the airwaves as what had once seemed infinite was now congested and crowded and early radio stations sought to keep from being drowned out by amateurs or competing stations. Before government stepped in this new market was in danger of grinding to a halt with the constant din of rival signals. Similar problems occur over issues of coordination; whose standard is going to prevail in terms of say operating systems, and with competition, as often a single dominant pioneer emerges and creates a virtual monopoly, solving some problems but creating others (as with Western Union, Marconi, and Microsoft).
The final phase is the establishment of rules, when government reenters the scene, nearly always at the urging of the dominant companies in a new field. The original rush away from government has come full circle as "the rebels return to the state," needing the state to secure their new wealth, to enforce issues of contracts, property rights, and provisions for standardization. Spar believed that the internet will reach this phase. Comment | Permalink
Solid collection of case studies on the rise of an invention, dynamics of competition amongst newcomers, the creation of markets by entrepreneurs capitalising on market acumen that early inventors lack, and the co-optation of rules and regulation to formalise, stabilise and legitimise property rights and monopolies over new technologies.
This remarkable and insightful book identifies a pattern in the development of technology: it comes in waves, starting with a period of invention, then a chaotic, free market phase of entrepreneurship, and finally a rule making phase in which the dominant players emerge and the technology because fixed and commonplace -and usually monopolized. The author, a political scientist and business professor, takes us on a tour de force of how these waves progressed for certain technologies, such as the telegraph and radio. You will come to understand the happenstance of how certain institutions emerged and became predominant, institutions such as Western Union and NBC, which are still around and taken for granted today. There are also chapters on the waves of recent Internet technologies, at the time of publication in 2001, where the full cycle wasn't yet complete. It would be fascinating to read what Spar thinks about how the Internet has evolved in the past twenty years, but to my knowledge she hasn't told us. This book is highly recommended for anyone interested in the history of technology, or in political or social theory, since they are intertwined. Technology is as much in the application as it is in the invention, after all.
Spar does a wonderful, and concise, job of detailing the cyclical nature of innovative industries. 1. Early entrants build demand 2. More entrants bring chaos in the market (think railroads) 3. A few big players turn to government in the hopes of squashing the competition. 4. The market winners start complaining about government regulation.