Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future by Pilkey, Orrin (2009) Paperback

by Orrin H. Pilkey

Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies.Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects.The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."

Genres: Science, Environment

Paperback Bunko

First published February 1, 2007

About the author

Orrin Hendren Pilkey Jr. was an American marine geologist who was Professor Emeritus of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, at Duke University, and founder and director emeritus of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines (PSDS) based at Western Carolina University.

Reviews

[Francis · Rating 3 out of 5]

Easy to read, and certainly important. Some things felt very obvious, and the science that was explained was more interesting to me than the math. There was so much drama! Pilkey’s style is juicy and enthralling. I yearned for more examples of qualitative modeling in action, as well as the political implications of said modeling. Discovered this book after reading David Geffen’s A Traveler’s Guide to the End of the World, and found this to be a great supplemental text.

[wilson · Rating 3 out of 5]

overall, i liked this book, though i probably wouldn’t read it again.

each chapter is pretty self-contained, and pilkey does a good job hammering home his thesis. each chapter presents a different story pertaining to flaws with quantitative modeling, and each story is pretty interesting. i like that he uses the first few chapters to introduce us to quant modeling and its history. i enjoyed his explanation of its religious history, and how we still see remnants of that today.

however, the book does get a bit repetitive at times. every chapter has the same takeaway— over reliance on quant modeling is dangerous and we shouldn’t overlook the role of qualitative research, historical analysis, expert opinion, and the like. i understand that this is the purpose of the book, don’t get me wrong, but i wish we could see some examples of positive qualitative analysis in action.

another critique i have is that some of the mentioned issues don’t seem like they’re issues with quant research so much as they’re issues with poor information and a reliance on mathematicians & politically-motivated contractors. i wish pilkey would expand beyond just mentioning these factors as “olive leaves” and brushing over them. also, a few of our examples seem like they were caused in part by a lack of research advancement in their designated fields to begin with. overall, this book is fine, definitely interesting and fairly well-written, but i wouldn’t read it again.

[Paul · Rating 4 out of 5]

Government administrators and policy makers use quantitative mathematical models to form future environmental policies. The authors of this book assert that these models are basically useless, that they lead to policies that make things worse, not better.

These models are filled with assumptions, suppositions and several pure guesses. "Fudge factors" are included to come up with an acceptable answer. Politics is frequently involved. An example is when the Canadian government said that the Grand Banks fishing area was in good condition, when "collapse" was a much more accurate description.

The EPA has required that the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal site must be safe for the public for the next 10,000 years. Based on current models, that is absurd enough, but, in 2004, a federal appeals court ruled that the safety of the repository must be assured for up to one million years. Really? That is longer than Homo Sapiens has existed, and there will be at least one major advance and retreat of glaciers, with corresponding huge changes in climate.

Open pit mines are frequently dug beneath the level of the local groundwater. Constant pumping of water keeps the mine dry. When the mine is abandoned, the local water, filled with all sorts of chemicals from the mine, fills the pit. How to predict things like the balance between inflow and outflow of water from the lake, acid production, and chemical reactions within the new lake?

Perhaps it would be better to say, for instance, "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise over the next hundred years" instead of "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise by (a specific number) over the next hundred years." Researchers freely admit that the models are full of flaws, but, until someone comes up with something better, they will continue to use them.

Written for the non-scientist (like yours truly), this book is very thought-provoking, and injects some much needed skepticism. It's a must-read of a book.

[John Bailo · Rating 3 out of 5]

I didn't so much learn from this book as I confirmed. Even though much of our society is run (or justified) by analytical computer models, anyone who has been to college in the last 30 years knows that they simply do not work.

We are still living in the age of chaos, as old as that work is and -- wake up -- it has not yet been replaced by anything.

After starting the 20th century with a bold vision to turn all of our actions into algorithmically predictable statements ( Russell and Whitehead) the gearheads of academia have been bashed and rebashed by reality. We don't live in a linear world. Even a baseball is unpredictable by Newton.

A more interesting book would have been about what could or will replace that paradigm.

Maybe I'll write that book.

[Gina · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading for anyone interested in environmental modeling. Written in highly accessible fashion, the book details the problems with quantitative modeling as applied to complex systems. Also serves as a primer to major concepts in contemporary ecosystems science and policy.

[Ashley · Rating 1 out of 5]

could've been so much more

[FSU Alumni]

Orrin H. Pilkey (Ph.D. '62)

[Stephen · Rating 2 out of 5]

It was a decent read. Mostly confirmed my previous biases, but an important topic nonetheless.