Fatal Forecast: An Incredible True Tale of Disaster and Survival at Sea

by Michael J. Tougias

A true story of catastrophe and survival at sea, Fatal Forecast is a spellbinding moment-by-moment account of seventy-two hours in the lives of eightyoung fishermen, some of whom would never set foot on dry land again. On the morning of November 21, 1980, two small Massachusetts lobster boats set out for Georges Bank, a bountiful but perilous fishing ground 130 miles off thecoast of Cape Cod. The National Weather Service had forecast typical fallweather, and the young, rugged crewmen aboard the Sea Fever and the Fair Wind had made dozens of similar trips that season. They had no reasonto expect that this trip would be any different. But the only weather buoy on Georges Bank was malfunctioning, and the NationalWeather Service had failed to share this fact with the fishermen who dependedon its forecasts. As the two small boats headed out to sea, a colossal storm wasbrewing to the southeast, a furious maelstrom the National Weather Service didnot accurately locate until the boats were already caught in the storm's grip,trapped in the treacherous waters of Georges Bank. Battered by sixty-foot waves and hurricane-force winds, the crews of the FairWind and the Sea Fever (captained by Peter Brown, whose father ownedthe Andrea Gail of Perfect Storm fame) struggled heroically to keep their vessels afloat. But the storm soon severely crippled one boat andoverturned the other, trapping its crew inside. Meticulously researched and vividly told, Fatal Forecast is first andforemost a tale of miraculous survival. Most amazing is the story of Ernie Hazzard, who managed to crawl inside a tiny inflatable life raft and then spentmore than fifty terrifying hours adrift on the stormy open sea. By turns tragic,thrilling, and inspiring, Ernie's story deserves a place among the greatestsurvival tales ever told. Equally riveting are the stories of the brave men and women from the Coast Guardand the crew of a nearby fishing boat who imperiled their own lives that day inorder to save the lives of others. As gripping and harrowing as The Perfect Storm - but with a miracle ending - Fatal Forecast is an unforgettable true story about the collision of two spectacular the brutality of nature and the human willto survive.

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Survival, Adventure, Audiobook, Travel, Biography

240 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2006

About the author

Adventure is the theme that runs through most of my books, from outdoors titles (The Connecticut River from Source to Sea, Exploring the Hidden Charles) to fiction (Until I Have No Country) to nonfiction sea rescues (Overboard! A Storm Too Soon, Rescue of the Bounty).
One of my current adventures is waiting to see if Disney will begin filming a movie-length version of the Coast Guard rescue book The Finest Hours. Another adventure for me is publishing a funny family memoir with my daughter, called The Cringe Chronicles (Mortifying Misadventures with my Dad).
My friends have been asking if I'll write a sequel to There's a Porcupine in my Outhouse (2003 Outdoor Book of the Year) but I think they just want me to revise their characters so they don't look so dumb!

Reviews

[Cheryl · Rating 5 out of 5]

On the morning of November 21, 1980, two small lobster boats set out to fish at Georges Bank, 130 miles off the coast of Cape Cod. The national weather service had forecast a typical fall day so the crew had little reason to doubt that this trip would be any different from the others they had taken. But the only weather buoy on Georges Bank had malfunctioned, and the National Weather Service had failed to fix it, and failed to inform the fisherman about it. As the two boats set out to sea, a colossal storm was brewing, with hurricane force winds and waves reaching over 60 feet. The crews faced an almost impossible situation and the story of their fate to this day remains nothing short of a miracle. An unforgettable story of tragedy and survival pits the brutality of nature against the human will to survive.
Jeff Cummings does an admiralble job narrating this suspenseful true story.

[Joy D · Rating 4 out of 5]

Michael Tougias tells the true story of a storm that hit Georges Bank in 1980, involving a malfunctioning weather buoy, and many mayday calls from boats and ships caught in the raging Atlantic seas off the coast of the northeastern US and Canada. The author documents research and interviews done years later. It provides a detailed account of what happened to those aboard the Sea Fever and the Fair Wind, and centers on the experiences of a sole survivor of one of the ships sunk in the storm. It is a sad tale that resulted in a needless loss of life. It is about courage, a fight for survival, and honor among seafarers who do whatever they can to help ships in distress. It is a riveting true story of the power of the sea.

[Becky · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was my second Tougias book- survival stories are my kryptonite, and he finds some great stories. I read Overboard! last year and rated it 4 stars for his ability to weave multiple narratives into the same storm. Perhaps it due to the time that has passed since the 1980 storm, whereas the Overboard storm occurred much more recently, that this story seem less constructed, less cohesive. I was thrown into the people’s story so quickly that I was having trouble keeping them apart, and that created a sense of distance from those struggling against the storm. Don’t get me wrong- it was still a great read in my opinion, just maybe felt a bit more formulaic than Overboard!

As always I was impressed with the daring of not only the Coast Guard, but other mariners in the vicinity who did all they could to help everyone in trouble. There are so few professional cultures that will drop everything to help someone in Mayday, and maybe, that’s something that honestly all businesses can learn from. I was also struck by the age of the captains. Bob Brown (who also would later own the infamous Andrea Gail of the Perfect Storm) had been fishing for a lifetime, but his 22 year old son captained (proficiently) his own boat, and Billy Garnos was also young. I guess I always have these images of these vast ocean liners, grizzled old sea captains, etc., but these ships were captained and crewed by men in the twenties. For a 22 year old to take naught but a 50 foot ship out onto the open, violent ocean, just blows my mind.

Tougias does a good job of explaining the science of the movement of the ocean on this particular stretch of continental shelf, however, he could have examined in better detail the failings of the NWS to appropriately forecast or inform the local captains that they were missing weather bouys. I realize that was not the focus of his story, however, I feel like it could have really strengthened the information that the reader was getting about this event.

[Jeannie Walker · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a spell binding true story of survival at sea when all should have been lost. I love how the author also tells about the courage of the Coast Guard and a crew of a fishing boat who risked their own lives to save others. The amazing thing about this true story is that there were survivors. - Praise God! It is an excellent story of surviving 65 feet waves and managing to spend 50 hours afloat in the stormy open sea and live to tell about it. It is truly an unforgettable story of the collision of nature and the human will to survive. It is well written and well researched and very well worth taking the time to read. I don't think you will forget this true story or the author - Michael J. Touglas, who does a great job of telling it.

Jeannie Walker - Award-Winning Author
Fighting the Devil: A True Story of Consuming Passion, Deadly Poison, and Murder
I Saw the Light
Thomas, The Friendly Ghost
The Rain Snake: A True Story of Love, Faith and Trust

[Shiny5711 · Rating 4 out of 5]

High Seas. No warning. Ships sink.

[Rachel Shaffer · Rating 3 out of 5]

So the government is essentially responsible for these men’s deaths and they escape the lawsuit untouched…. Yet another reasonable argument for anarchy.

[Patrick · Rating 5 out of 5]

Another terrific book by MJ Tougias. Love how he gets right into it and doesn’t have nonsense filler.
Fast read.

[Rick Wahler · Rating 5 out of 5]

Couldn’t put it down

Gripping, thrilling, intense, moving, emotion stimulating. Real life and personal. So interesting and well-written I read it completely in 5 hours.

[Donald · Rating 4 out of 5]

Jeff Cummings does a great job reading Micheal J. Tougias' accounting of a suprise storm that happened off the New England coast, along Georges Bank. It's the same area of water that the story, Perfect Storm, occured in.

I've fished Georges Bank. It is far from the sight of land, and even with a group of people there are solitary moments of time when you are alone to contemplate the vastness of the world around. Looking out into that body of water makes one understand one's place in the scream of things...

I love the way nonfiction realigns me...

[Meggen · Rating 2 out of 5]

2 1/2 stars. I was disappointed in this book. The writing was choppy and uninteresting. It was very factual, yet not very emotionally drawing. Although the main focus was the story of one man's 3 day survival at sea after his ship went down in a storm, I found myself not feeling very connected to any of the characters. Truly, I should have cared more about everyone whose experiences were chronicled in the book, but I really didn't. If you are looking for a good survival at sea story, "Unbroken" by Laura Hillenbrand is definitely the one I would recommend.

[Lauri · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great read

This is one of the best books I've ever read. I worried at first that it might be too technical for me to follow since I know very little about this type of fishing and boats, but that wasn't the case at all. Mr. Tougias writes in a very clear and understandable way and made it easy for me to feel I was right there on George's Bank. It is a fascinating story and very well told. If you enjoy books based on true events, I highly recommend this book! I couldn't put it down!

[Kate · Rating 2 out of 5]

It was a true story of a disaster at sea. I was kind of into it, even though the writing was cheesy, just because i'm a sucker for disaster. But then the pictures in the middle of the book gave away the ending (who dies, who doesn't) and I got bored and quit.

[ashley · Rating 2 out of 5]

Incredible story, but I found the writing corny at parts. It also jumped around to stories that were similar to the events taking place, which felt a lot like filler. This would have been better if it had been made into more of a short story instead of a 200 page book.

[Stefanie Robinson · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book covers the events that took place on November 21, 1980 in Massachusetts. Off the coast of Massachusetts, there are several well known fishing grounds for various types of fish, but especially lobster. As most of us know, Massachusetts and Maine are quite known for lobster and seafood fishing and eating. There were several ships and small boats at sea on this particular day, all of which had checked the weather reports before putting out. Two of the ships, Sea Fever and Fair Wind, went out on a prolonged fishing trip. They checked the weather and went to work, not realizing that the National Weather Service was neglectful in maintaining their weather instruments and tracking the storm. By the time that the storm and its path were discovered, the ships were battling hurricane force winds and at least sixty feet swells. Those conditions are absolutely devastating for a small lobster fishing boat. I won't ruin the story by saying what happened to any of the crew members or ships, but what they endured was nothing short of remarkable and harrowing. I am, however, pleased to report that the National Weather Service was found liable for some of this mess, as they should have been!!

Whew, I thought I was finally getting caught up on reviews that I was behind on, but I had surgery this week and got even more behind. I found this book on Audible Plus, and it was about a four hour listen. I have finally listened to almost all of the ones that I have bought, so I went through the catalogue to see if there was anything worth borrowing, and there was! I had not heard about these ships and their crew members, so this was certainly worth the time it took for me to listen. Plus, it passed some of my recovery time where I was awake with not a soul to talk to. This author has a few books about sea disasters, and they are always action packed but informative. (One especially neat thing that I learned was that the captain of the Sea Fever was the son of the owner of the Andrea Gail, which is immortalized in the movie Perfect Storm.) I really appreciate the level of research that this author puts into his work, and I really do enjoy learning about the people he writes about. The book and the hardships that were mentioned also gave me a newfound appreciation for the people who catch my crabs and lobsters that I very much enjoy eating. I never really considered how difficult of a job that was, or how dangerous. The only real complaint that I have is that the audio version did not come with pictures. I would have liked to have had a map and pictures of the crew in this book, simply for reference. I had to do some Google searching to figure out what these ships looked like, who the crew was, and where the ships were stricken. (I have to say that I love a picture book, haha.) This book was really quite good, and I plan to add a couple of his other books to my to read list. If you are interested in disasters at sea/sea storms, this is an author that you should really look into.

[Geve_ · Rating 3 out of 5]

Really interesting storm and survival story, but didn't really love the writing or formatting of the book itself. There were far too many uninteresting tangents, and I am one who LOVES maritime and weather related minutiae. There was even a short section about sharks present in the north atlantic, and how some of them have been known to bite people who aren't wearing blue, but then there were no actual sharks in the story itself, so that kinda felt like filler. Also don't love that the author chose to continue to repeat a very obvious falsehood of the Essex crew seeing a shark the same size as the whale that took out their boat. yeah, not a lot of sharks the same size as a fucking sperm whale (50+ feet) that is big enough to take out a whole ass whaling ship. Why even put that in here? There are no sharks in this story, nor are there whales, nor is this story about the Essex. Now I'm going on an unrelated shark tangent. Sorry.

Anyways, it was an ok read, not my tops, but honestly, still serviceable book about a survival at sea.

[Melissa · Rating 4 out of 5]

HYC Book Club

Fatal Forecast is the story of several fishing boats caught up in a surprise storm, November 1980. That was the year I was born. The storm was a surprise based on the unpredictable nature of the sea and weather in general and the faith we put in our government to accurately provide marine weather forecasts that lives depend on.

The storytelling is excellent. The author provides clear facts, step by step accounts of the events and insight into each person mentioned.

I grew up in Hyannis, I’m a sailor and I have a healthy respect for Mother Nature and a slight obsession with weather. I also personally know an individual in this book and have seen several of the fishing vessels docked in Hyannis Harbor. NOTE: A 50 foot fishing boat isn’t large.

Highly recommend.

[Ursula Johnson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Superb Account of an Epic Disaster

This was a hard to put down story about the tragic and heroic events of a rare storm that was similar to the conditions in the Perfect Storm. The missed forecast due to a malfunctioning weather buoy that NOAA chose not to repair quickly had tremendous consequences for the fishermen who relied on accurate weather information. Author Douglas puts you in the boats with the fishermen and Coast Guardsmen. The epic story of Ernie Hazzard's survival is simply amazing as well. Expertly written and researched, it is an unforgettable story. I read this book using immersion reading and narrator Jeff Cummings was superb.

[Jake Kritzer · Rating 4 out of 5]

I work for an organization that supports oceanographic/meteorological data buoys and forecast models. This book is rooted in the failure of data buoys, models, and the people who apply those tools. Accordingly, it was…sobering.

The story itself is harrowing, heartbreaking, and amazing. It’s told with little fluff and only the most essential background. It has a pace that moves and seems to match the events on the water that it recounts. I typically do not get through books terribly quickly, but this one I finished in not much longer than the timespan of the story. I enjoyed it, as much as anyone can enjoy a tale fraught with so much pain. It truly grounded the work I do.

[Jack · Rating 3 out of 5]

I started this book with great expectations. This was a relatively short book, about 220 pages.,this in spite of it having 4 topics. The 3 lobster boats caught in the storm, and the ensuing rescue attempts by the Coast Guard. The 3 boats caught in the storm forced the author to jump around, affecting the flow of the book.
I got the feeling throughout the book that the author wasn't sure he had enough material, and he needed to add details I found unnecessary.
The best part of the book was the part about Ernie Hazard and his heroic struggle for survival. But even that I found details concerning his medical condition often redundant.

[Alyssa · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was a quick interesting listen. It's amazing what some people can endure to survive something that should have killed them.
Even though this was short, I couldn't always connect to the story. For example, while the part about sharks was interesting, it really had nothing to do with the story so I didn't particularly understand why that was thrown in there. Maybe just to highlight why he wasn't eaten by a shark while in the water for 50 hours?

[Kim Ayres · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting true story. I learned a lot about how big and small boats operate in the worst kinds of weather. It makes the lobster taste way different. Loved the comment from a surviving fishermen years later. He said, sometimes while out to sea he turns on Boston traffic reports. He appreciated on a daily basis that he looks at sunrises and sunsets instead of taillights.

[Frank · Rating 3 out of 5]

I've always liked Michael Tougias's books, and this one is no exception. Amazing true story of a disaster at sea and a series of miraculous rescues. Strangely, though, I don't think this particular one is as well-written as other Tougias books I've read. (One of the reviewers on Good Reads mentioned "cheesy" writing, which isn't far off). Regardless, this one is still a very good read.

[Rod Read · Rating 5 out of 5]

A retelling of a real-life open ocean sinking and what happened to those on board two lobster boats on the Georges Bank off of Cape Cod. The author has the talent to make the reader feel like they are witnessing the events in real-time. It's not possible to dismiss the dangers of being on the open ocean in a dangerous storm after reading this book.

[Tim Austin · Rating 4 out of 5]

The summary nails it. A gripping true tale of loss and survival against all odds. Growing up in Texas the travails of the New England fishing industry were unknown to me prior to Hollywood treatment of The Perfect Storm. Lost in the wake of that, but deeply entwined, is the tale of the Sea Fever and Fair Wind (among others). This book is just as, if not more, powerful than The Perfect Storm.

[Kathleen Nagro · Rating 4 out of 5]

Living so close to Gloucester, a major fishing center on the North Shore, I am enjoying true tales of the very dangerous aspects of the fishing industry. This is a true tale of an amazing storm, how weather is predicted for boating, and how one survives an extraordinary weather event or not. It’s gripping.

[Summer Reading · Rating 5 out of 5]

An intense and engaging historical narrative about a sea disaster in 1980. Tougias is a strong storyteller and a detailed researcher. And I love how he weaves the contextual history smoothly into his narrative. This book had me heartbroken and inspired. I was on the edge of my seat several times and crying at the end.

[Clumsygadabout · Rating 4 out of 5]

I'd recommend this book for anyone who watches Smithsonian Channel's Disaster at Sea or Air Disasters. May be a good pick for Documentary fans as well. The author does a good job of walking the line between weaving in background stories to add depth and context to the primary story without testing the readers patience on an endless tangent.

[Carolyn Vigil · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good information.
Enjoyed knowing what happened to the crew and the responders after the story.
Although, it was slow at times due to the repetitive statements about the crew's life and laws of the sea.
Would recommend it.

[Edward · Rating 3 out of 5]

Well-written account of a power winter storm catching fishing boats off the NE coast 11 years before the events in Junger's "Perfect Storm". The account of Ernie Hazard's survival is amazing. Well worth a read.

[Debra · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was a good book for reading a chapter or two at bedtime. The reader knows the outcome at the start, but the details of each person’s experience were fascinating. It was even more interesting to me as it happened to people from the same area where I have lived my whole life.