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Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting
An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.
384 pages, Hardcover
First published July 15, 2009
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49 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
May 13, 2017
The book is a very good read for people who already have a tried their hands at time series forecasting. I can say that this book captures and discusses a good number of scenarios I have experienced during my tenure as a forecast analyst for a departmental store. I was able to relate to most of the real time examples and the solutions.
The chapter on regression was very well structured in terms of contents and explanation. The statistical metrics were discussed in a succinct manner. The book focuses more on the applications of time series methods to forecast demand and supply and less on the math behind the time series methods. Basic to intermediate knowledge of the math behind time series modeling is sufficient to get the most out of this book. If the reader has hands-on experience in basic forecasting techniques, irrespective of the software, is an added advantage. The section on transfer functions could benefit from better explanation.
Overall, the book served as a good refresher on time series forecasting, forecast accuracy measurements and retail domain knowledge.
The chapter on regression was very well structured in terms of contents and explanation. The statistical metrics were discussed in a succinct manner. The book focuses more on the applications of time series methods to forecast demand and supply and less on the math behind the time series methods. Basic to intermediate knowledge of the math behind time series modeling is sufficient to get the most out of this book. If the reader has hands-on experience in basic forecasting techniques, irrespective of the software, is an added advantage. The section on transfer functions could benefit from better explanation.
Overall, the book served as a good refresher on time series forecasting, forecast accuracy measurements and retail domain knowledge.
April 1, 2017
Demand-Driven Forecasting is an all-round book that introduces the concept of demand forecasting including all the forecasting methods and aspects that drives demand. It is a detailed read and goes down to various algorithms that determine and shape demand; more importantly how to put in effective strategies to maximise accuracy. Charles Chase is certainly a credible author in this area with his background/experience and delves into many case studies with both feedback, advice and lessons learned. One area that was missing in my opinion is the arena of machine learning which is something the organisation I work for has invested a lot of time and money into. Given the advent of big data and cloud (including elastic) computing machine learning will play a greater role in the world of demand forecasting.
Three key takeaways from the book:
1. Demand Management is done well when it is more than just forecasting. For example, when encompassing sensing, shaping and translating a demand response into a decision-making cycle that demand driven practitioners continuously fine-tuned (i.e. Shape) based on KPIs using the combination of data, analytics, technology and or domain knowledge.
2. A lot of companies think they are shaping future demand by meeting supply constraints however they are fitting demand to supply rather than supply to demand.
3. Combining of forecasts is a good rule of thumb in two situations. 1. When you are uncertain which forecasting method is most accurate and 2. When you are uncertain about the forecasting situation.
Three key takeaways from the book:
1. Demand Management is done well when it is more than just forecasting. For example, when encompassing sensing, shaping and translating a demand response into a decision-making cycle that demand driven practitioners continuously fine-tuned (i.e. Shape) based on KPIs using the combination of data, analytics, technology and or domain knowledge.
2. A lot of companies think they are shaping future demand by meeting supply constraints however they are fitting demand to supply rather than supply to demand.
3. Combining of forecasts is a good rule of thumb in two situations. 1. When you are uncertain which forecasting method is most accurate and 2. When you are uncertain about the forecasting situation.
March 15, 2014
Excellent summary.
A book to have for any practitioner and senior manager who is serious about their forecast, inventory, and customer service and company KPIs in general. Very good case studies that illustrate the topics discussed.
A book to have for any practitioner and senior manager who is serious about their forecast, inventory, and customer service and company KPIs in general. Very good case studies that illustrate the topics discussed.
January 10, 2016
Completely new concepts about forecasting and process of planning. very concerete and practical. I think this book has come in wright moment for me - wright information in the wright time.
July 18, 2016
A good practical overview of various forecasting methods. Doesn't go too much into details. Gives an author's comparison of the various methods and his view on accuracy and best application.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews