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253 pages, Paperback
First published May 1, 2024
As for the argument about "preserving" things for "posterity," that boils down to allowing the posterity of existing residents to keep out the posterity of other people.
Builders ALREADY charge the highest prices they can get right?
Yes.
So, if the government allows new construction, how will the builders entice new customers to buy new homes?
Cut the price.
Fine, cut the price, but barely! So, new builders still earn fat profits!
Yes.
Then, anyone who builds yet another building makes huge profits, too. So, what do builders do next?
Build again?
And prices fall a little more. As long as building stay profitable...
Builders keep building? And prices keep falling?
Yes, until housing is so cheap that new building ceases to be profitable.
A panacea policy than cures all social ills? Absurd!
Fine, I'll show you. Name a social problem:
inequality
When housing gets cheapers, who gains the most?
People who spend a high income share on housing and renters, i.e., the poor.
And who gains less when housing prices fall?
People who spend a lower income share on housing.
Who might actually lose?
Homeowners and landlords who both tend to be rich.
Society gets richer, and the poor gain more than the rich. Sounds like housing deregulation is a fix to inequality to me.
When you look closer housing costs explain rising inequality. Net capital share has increased since 1948, but once disaggregated this increase comes entirely from the housing sector. The contribution of net capital income from all other sectors has been zero or slightly negative.
social mobility
The regulations don't just making quality housing and nice neighbourhoods less affordable. They create a castle like system, where you have to be pretty rich to even live near the rich.
Deregulation makes moving to opportunity affordable. Sometimes that means a move across town. Sometimes that means a move across the country. This is less common than it used to be, especially for the poor. Let's see why. Say the year is 1960. You're a lawyer or a janitor. You move from the deep south to the tri-state area. How much do you gain subtracting housing costs? Lawyer +39% and janitor +70%. Now in 2010, how much do you gain subtracting housing costs? Lawyer +29% and janitor -7%.
Researchers Peter Ganong and Daniel Shoag use these cases as springboards to analyse how housing regulation distorts US migration and blocks social mobility.
Until 1980 rich and poor alike tended to move from poor states to rich states. Thanks to crazier and crazier housing regulation though, this is no longer true. Richer workers still move in the classic poor to rich direction because their extra pay outweight their extra rent. The opposite holds true for poorer workers who now tend to flee high-pay states to get cheaper housing.
How exactly will cheap housing in the country's tech and finance centres help working class males that the new economy has been especially bad for? About 10M americans, 90% male, work in construction. Millions more work in infrastructure. These jobs are practically working class by definition. The building boom unleashed by deregulation could easily double such employment for decades. Anne Case and Angus Deaton (nobel prize) are eminent researchers who blame rising deaths from drugs, alcohol, and suicide on lack of meaningful work for working-class males.
If they are right, housing deregulation won't just boost the standard of living of deindustrialised workers, but deregulation will actually save lives.
Deregulation can help the homeless too. It won't help someone who spends all their money on bad habits, but high rents are one of the best predictors of a city's homelessness rates. In a dirt cheap city even people with serious issues can afford to get off the street. And the whole point of housing deregulation is to drive down prices by increasing supply.
falling birthrates
Having a baby is tough when you have to save for a decade to buy a cramped starter home.And raising a large family in such a house could easily drive parents crazy.
crime
about 15% of US land is vacant or abandoned. A striking Philidelphia experiment confirms that cutting out vacant lots cuts crime because crims concentrates in these locations. Randomly assigning some vacant lots for landscaping, fencing, and mainenance saw the neighbourhoods perceived crime fall by 37% and police reported crime fall by 9%. If sprucing up a vacant lot takes a big bite out of crime, actually buidling something on it would probably slash crime even more.
Housing deregulation unlocks massive economic growth, slashes inequality, speeds social mobility, enriches and uplifts working-class males, counters 'deaths of despair', helps the homeless, makes babies, and fights crime.
Bryan Caplan fanboy here. I picked up this book from Amazon back in March, 2024. Last October I drove up to the University of New England in Biddeford, Maine to see Bryan participate in its President’s Forum and I got him to sign it. And now I finally got around to reading it.
It is a (literal) comic book, and I mean no disrespect by that; its fantastic, clever illustration is by Ady Branzei. Bryan appears as a chacter, explaining his thesis to the reader.
And that thesis is straightforward and ably presented: deregulation of housing policy is pretty close to a panacea. It would not only solve the obvious problem (often described as a "housing crisis" here in New Hampshire), but also help ameliorate a host of associated social woes. Although the book is published by the libertarian Cato Institute, Bryan notes that such deregulation should appeal to other factions in the political landscape: egalitarians, for example, should like that it gives the less well-off a better chance at decent shelter. It has environmental benefits! It would facilitate people moving from low-productivity, low-wage areas to better their economic situation! It would make having babies more practical, staving off demographic collapse! ("It slices! It dices!")
Of course, the deregulation Bryan champions has its problems with political feasibility. Making housing "more affordable" translates to, for existing homeowners, a decline in their property values. And homeowners tend to vote their pocketbooks. (This March 2025 story from our local TV station shows how this is playing out in New Hampshire.)