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A Map of the New Normal: How Inflation, War, and Sanctions Will Change Your World Forever
Bestselling author and economist Jeff Rubin looks ahead and warns that the inflation that took the world by surprise in 2021 is in fact the front of a perfect storm of war, supply-chain disruption, geopolitical realignment, domestic upheaval, and energy scarcity that will change everything.
During the pandemic, the borrowing patterns of the Canadian government inflated a national deficit by a factor of ten in just two years—and the time has come to pay for it. The ramifications of international COVID-19 spending could potentially last for decades, and inevitably one of the first manifestations of these consequences will be that central banks will lose control of interest rates, and therefore of growth and inflation targets. The genie will be out of the bottle.
That is just the first symptom of a series of cascading upheavals. Supply-chain disruptions have already shown the vulnerability of the globalist model that has fueled growth for the past decades. War has not only shown the fragility of the status quo, but has revealed diplomatic and economic rifts that promise to shift trading patterns, which means access to markets and to resources. At the same time, the precarity of the US dollar underlines the life-or-death importance of those resources, energy in particular. And consolidation of a Eurasian bloc, from Russia to China, and encompassing old enemies like Iran and former US ally Saudi Arabia, hint that the upheaval of Covid was just the beginning.
Tracking trade wars and kinetic wars, central banks and runs on banks, pipelines blown up and startups knocked down, A Map of the New Normal gives us a glimpse of a near future that will look very different from the recent past. It reminds us that our mortgage rates and job security, our grocery bills and investments, are all tied to events set in motion by governments, corporations, and black swans around the world.
During the pandemic, the borrowing patterns of the Canadian government inflated a national deficit by a factor of ten in just two years—and the time has come to pay for it. The ramifications of international COVID-19 spending could potentially last for decades, and inevitably one of the first manifestations of these consequences will be that central banks will lose control of interest rates, and therefore of growth and inflation targets. The genie will be out of the bottle.
That is just the first symptom of a series of cascading upheavals. Supply-chain disruptions have already shown the vulnerability of the globalist model that has fueled growth for the past decades. War has not only shown the fragility of the status quo, but has revealed diplomatic and economic rifts that promise to shift trading patterns, which means access to markets and to resources. At the same time, the precarity of the US dollar underlines the life-or-death importance of those resources, energy in particular. And consolidation of a Eurasian bloc, from Russia to China, and encompassing old enemies like Iran and former US ally Saudi Arabia, hint that the upheaval of Covid was just the beginning.
Tracking trade wars and kinetic wars, central banks and runs on banks, pipelines blown up and startups knocked down, A Map of the New Normal gives us a glimpse of a near future that will look very different from the recent past. It reminds us that our mortgage rates and job security, our grocery bills and investments, are all tied to events set in motion by governments, corporations, and black swans around the world.
272 pages, Hardcover
Published May 14, 2024
30 people are currently reading
286 people want to read
About the author
Jeff Rubin
15 books43 followersLibrarian Note: There is more than one author in the GoodReads database with this name. See this thread for more information.
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Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews
June 15, 2024
Reading A Map to The New Normal is like using prescription glasses for the first time. All your life, you think the world is supposed to look blurry until the truth clears your vision. This book covers topics ranging from inflation, trade sanctions, economic warfare, proxy wars, and the geopolitical issues that interconnect them all. Although that may sound dull to many casual readers, this book draws back the curtains of willingful blindness and actually explains why many countries are experiencing recessions while providing reasonable predictions on what will become our new normal. This is a very important book.
July 5, 2024
Summary - We are fucked
July 7, 2025
The most disgusting book I have read during the last several years. Author could win a competition if there were any on how well he can s*ck putin and russia.
January 28, 2025
A very interesting exploration into how the world is rapidly changing as global trade reorganizes and continues along new paths set forward by pandemic lockdowns. Really makes an argument for how ineffective economic sanctions have been and paints a picture of how those targeted by them are stronger now than before, and continually growing stronger. Very insightful and well-written, a must read!
March 18, 2025
A fascinating look into the world, through the eyes of economist Jeffrey Rubin. Though I may not always agree with his take on things, this book does cause you to sit back and think. From the weaponization of financial and currency markets, the unintended consequences of sanctions, to the rising influence of China and the potential implications thereof, this book gives the reader a lot to think about. The world is rapidly shifting, as we are aware from recent actions taken by the United States, and this book helps to frame a broader global context for the world we are living in now. Sit tight, this ride is likely to get bumpy.
May 18, 2024
While I appreciated the information, I struggle with books that complain and say literally everything is awful, but does not give an ideas or thoughts for improvement. This guy makes Debbie Downer seem like the queen of optimism.
July 4, 2024
An excellent look at the current state of the world economy, including a very insightful look at the impact of sanctions on national economies.
June 27, 2024
Dies Irae.
June 4, 2024
Jeff Rubin is an astoundingly, persuasive writer in the field of economics and politics. If you are a true current events junkie, this book will revive so many items from your daily news that you had completely forgotten, along with many facts leading down paths to interesting conclusions on the author’s part
I really could not tell at first if he is truly an optimist or a pessimist about the world we inhabit, and will inhabit from this moment on; I think he emerges as more of an optimist, but I have a feeling all of us are going to have some work to do to make it all turn out right. The clarity of that message may be a bit buried, but it’s in there.
If you do get a chance to find yourself in an actual conversation with Jeff, it is fascinating!
I really could not tell at first if he is truly an optimist or a pessimist about the world we inhabit, and will inhabit from this moment on; I think he emerges as more of an optimist, but I have a feeling all of us are going to have some work to do to make it all turn out right. The clarity of that message may be a bit buried, but it’s in there.
If you do get a chance to find yourself in an actual conversation with Jeff, it is fascinating!
January 16, 2025
Interesting take and very factual but I get the sense that he’s a Putin apologist. Yes, Western sanctions against Russia have had unintended consequences and downsides for us. But what’s the alternative? Allow Russia to defy the modern World order, and invade a sovereign country for the first time since WWII? We have to choose sanctions or Russian aggression, and they won’t stop in Ukraine is they don’t have to.
It sounds like Rubin would be happier in Moscow or Beijing than in Canada.
It sounds like Rubin would be happier in Moscow or Beijing than in Canada.
November 16, 2024
Globalisation was touted to be the ultimate panacea for embellishing and enhancing the paeans of super capitalism. A seamless and unfettered cross border mobility of income and capital would turn the world into a borderless mega zone of trade and commerce. However, the much-trusted utopia is falling apart at the seams, courtesy some Teutonic geopolitical convulsions. As nationalism, protectionism, and a splintering of exclusive ‘blocks’ characterise the current world, doing co-operative business is at the cross roads.
Canadian economist, prolific author and currently a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Jeff Rubin, pulls back no punches in a trenchant analysis of how a contrivance of inflation, sanctions and war would transform the world which we inhabit.
When an impudent Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Western world came down upon Russia with sanctions like a tonne of bricks. However, as Rubin informs his readers, these sanctions, instead of acting as a deterrent, worked against the interests of the parties responsible for their imposition. For example, a blanket ban on fossil fuel imports from Russia has sent concerns of energy security soaring across Europe in addition to resurrecting coal, the dirtiest form of fossil fuel, the phasing out of which was the one uncompromisable and collective global aim. Coal consumption in Europe is up 20% since Ukraine conflict, while the Australian Newcastle coal is trending at an all time high of $457 a ton, over three times the price from only a year earlier.
Russia and Ukraine, both significant breadbaskets of the world and critical exporters of fertilizers, have seen the exports of food fall thereby driving the price of food. As a détente, the United Nations and Türkiye brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine allowing the Ukrainians to transport grain via mutually agreed upon ‘corridors’ in the Black Sea. Ironically, once supplies commenced, the realisation dawned that most of the cargo was already covered by commercial contracts and was not meant to cater to the most needy and deprived. Thus, while Sudan received a paltry 65,000 tonnes of grain, self-sufficient Spain received a whopping 2.9 million tonnes, most of which went towards feeding Spanish pigs to produce its unique ‘jamon’.
China has also been at the receiving end of multifarious sanctions, from the United States. The Biden Administration In October 2022 issued new export controls to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made with U.S. equipment in its bid to slow Beijing's technological and military advances. However, as Rubin informs his readers, while China can perfectly live without apple, but can Apple, with its $3 trillion market capitalization, live without China? Moreover, these sanctions have ushered in a new era in self sufficiency when it comes to the Chinese Chip and Semi-Conductor Industry. Data published by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) reveals that China’s monthly wafer production capacity has reached 7.6 million pieces, accounting for 25.6% of global semiconductor capacity. Going by this trend, in 2024, mainland China’s semiconductor capacity is expected to continue leading the world with a growth rate of 13%.
Similarly, G7 countries opened the aid and quantitative easing faucet to the tune of $2.2 trillion during the COVID -19 pandemic. As a result, the US deficit tripled to 15 percent of GDP. While the central banks go on a rate cutting spree, Rubin concludes that a union of record-high deficits and record-low interest rates cannot last, and the split would only turn out to be quite painful at the end.
Canadian economist, prolific author and currently a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Jeff Rubin, pulls back no punches in a trenchant analysis of how a contrivance of inflation, sanctions and war would transform the world which we inhabit.
When an impudent Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Western world came down upon Russia with sanctions like a tonne of bricks. However, as Rubin informs his readers, these sanctions, instead of acting as a deterrent, worked against the interests of the parties responsible for their imposition. For example, a blanket ban on fossil fuel imports from Russia has sent concerns of energy security soaring across Europe in addition to resurrecting coal, the dirtiest form of fossil fuel, the phasing out of which was the one uncompromisable and collective global aim. Coal consumption in Europe is up 20% since Ukraine conflict, while the Australian Newcastle coal is trending at an all time high of $457 a ton, over three times the price from only a year earlier.
Russia and Ukraine, both significant breadbaskets of the world and critical exporters of fertilizers, have seen the exports of food fall thereby driving the price of food. As a détente, the United Nations and Türkiye brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine allowing the Ukrainians to transport grain via mutually agreed upon ‘corridors’ in the Black Sea. Ironically, once supplies commenced, the realisation dawned that most of the cargo was already covered by commercial contracts and was not meant to cater to the most needy and deprived. Thus, while Sudan received a paltry 65,000 tonnes of grain, self-sufficient Spain received a whopping 2.9 million tonnes, most of which went towards feeding Spanish pigs to produce its unique ‘jamon’.
China has also been at the receiving end of multifarious sanctions, from the United States. The Biden Administration In October 2022 issued new export controls to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made with U.S. equipment in its bid to slow Beijing's technological and military advances. However, as Rubin informs his readers, while China can perfectly live without apple, but can Apple, with its $3 trillion market capitalization, live without China? Moreover, these sanctions have ushered in a new era in self sufficiency when it comes to the Chinese Chip and Semi-Conductor Industry. Data published by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) reveals that China’s monthly wafer production capacity has reached 7.6 million pieces, accounting for 25.6% of global semiconductor capacity. Going by this trend, in 2024, mainland China’s semiconductor capacity is expected to continue leading the world with a growth rate of 13%.
Similarly, G7 countries opened the aid and quantitative easing faucet to the tune of $2.2 trillion during the COVID -19 pandemic. As a result, the US deficit tripled to 15 percent of GDP. While the central banks go on a rate cutting spree, Rubin concludes that a union of record-high deficits and record-low interest rates cannot last, and the split would only turn out to be quite painful at the end.
January 29, 2025
Macro economic view of how government actions are influencing global economy through central bank policies and sanctions that will solidify inflation as a permanent part of the future economy. His view is that these actions are having the unintended consequences for western nations by providing catalysts and incentives for primarily Eurasian countries to form new economic blocs that will supplant the US dollar as world currency and only increase Chinese and Russian power.
-Interesting discussion on the petrodollar and how USD came to be de facto trade currency for oil. Nixon agreement with Saudia Arabia for latter to accept payment for oil in USD and use those funds to buy American treasuries (fund debt and cheap money).
- the unintended effect of confiscating Russian USD reserves in western banks is to have a cooling reflect on USD being safe reserve currency (shown it could be confiscated based on politics).
Criticisms
— seems to argue Russian sanctions are main cause of inflation. Don’t think he really gives pandemic enough due
- seems fairly anti-western. Agrees with Russian complaints of NATO encroachment. Almost seems to excuse Ukrainian invasion (not directly, but takes a very generous view of Russia).
— he does not mention the role of corporations in inflation at all. He blames sanctions, governments, central banks, and workers as primary causes. Basically everyone but corporations for financial woes
-believes that the realignment of global trade will focus around Russia and China. Don’t think any mention of US role as consumer to the world is highlighted as an important piece. Seems like decoupling the economies from US/west from Eurasia would have the latter hard pressed to finds buyers for its goods.
- USD losing its place as trade currency is discussed more in terms of countries now accepting domestic currencies for payment. Not necessarily mean that yuan or rubble is replacement.
-no real solutions are given. Complaints mainly stem from Western political decisions having negative economic impacts. If sanctions are the cause of so many issues, what should have been done instead? Economics and politics can’t be separated at the world stage.
-Interesting discussion on the petrodollar and how USD came to be de facto trade currency for oil. Nixon agreement with Saudia Arabia for latter to accept payment for oil in USD and use those funds to buy American treasuries (fund debt and cheap money).
- the unintended effect of confiscating Russian USD reserves in western banks is to have a cooling reflect on USD being safe reserve currency (shown it could be confiscated based on politics).
Criticisms
— seems to argue Russian sanctions are main cause of inflation. Don’t think he really gives pandemic enough due
- seems fairly anti-western. Agrees with Russian complaints of NATO encroachment. Almost seems to excuse Ukrainian invasion (not directly, but takes a very generous view of Russia).
— he does not mention the role of corporations in inflation at all. He blames sanctions, governments, central banks, and workers as primary causes. Basically everyone but corporations for financial woes
-believes that the realignment of global trade will focus around Russia and China. Don’t think any mention of US role as consumer to the world is highlighted as an important piece. Seems like decoupling the economies from US/west from Eurasia would have the latter hard pressed to finds buyers for its goods.
- USD losing its place as trade currency is discussed more in terms of countries now accepting domestic currencies for payment. Not necessarily mean that yuan or rubble is replacement.
-no real solutions are given. Complaints mainly stem from Western political decisions having negative economic impacts. If sanctions are the cause of so many issues, what should have been done instead? Economics and politics can’t be separated at the world stage.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 20, 2024
A depressing read from the viewpoint of one who clearly values only $$$ arguments. Chapters are devoted to amoral takes on topics such as Putin's invasion of Ukraine and China's desire for a conquest of Taiwan.
In Ukraine's case, the author is an apologist for Russian rape, torture, and murder of Ukrainian civilians as simply a reasonable response to NATO expansionism. For Rubin, Russia is an insurmountable foe, economically so strong that resistance is futile.
In Taiwan's case, the author sees China's designs on the island as unstoppable, with no support from Europe, and ineffective support from the US. China is described as a powerhouse, downplaying the countries actual economic weaknesses today, and ignoring completely the immoral actions of the CCP government.
I reject the author's view of the future where there is no right or wrong, only more expense and less profit for weak Western societies. The book exudes "angry old man shakes fist at cloud" energy.
In Ukraine's case, the author is an apologist for Russian rape, torture, and murder of Ukrainian civilians as simply a reasonable response to NATO expansionism. For Rubin, Russia is an insurmountable foe, economically so strong that resistance is futile.
In Taiwan's case, the author sees China's designs on the island as unstoppable, with no support from Europe, and ineffective support from the US. China is described as a powerhouse, downplaying the countries actual economic weaknesses today, and ignoring completely the immoral actions of the CCP government.
I reject the author's view of the future where there is no right or wrong, only more expense and less profit for weak Western societies. The book exudes "angry old man shakes fist at cloud" energy.
June 23, 2024
Rubin synthesizes many (if not all) of the major geopolitical events since 2020 into a coherent narrative, touching on history, politics, macroeconomics, finance, monetary theory, and a swath of other disciplines.
This book helped put into context, and therefore understand, just how profoundly our world has departed from the globalism-driven conception described in the 2000s through the early 2010s.
My only criticism is that I wish Rubin presented competing arguments or interpretations. It would’ve strengthened the authority of his interpretation, especially because the consistency of his analyses leaves him vulnerable to being labeled as an alarmist.
This book helped put into context, and therefore understand, just how profoundly our world has departed from the globalism-driven conception described in the 2000s through the early 2010s.
My only criticism is that I wish Rubin presented competing arguments or interpretations. It would’ve strengthened the authority of his interpretation, especially because the consistency of his analyses leaves him vulnerable to being labeled as an alarmist.
July 29, 2024
Excellent analysis of current events based on historical decision-making by our rulers of all political persuasions.
Easy to read and understand. I do believe that this book should be required reading for anyone planning a trip to the voting booth, as this activity seems to be the only way for "us plebians" to have a say, not only in our respective country, but also in global events.
6 stars.
Easy to read and understand. I do believe that this book should be required reading for anyone planning a trip to the voting booth, as this activity seems to be the only way for "us plebians" to have a say, not only in our respective country, but also in global events.
6 stars.
February 21, 2025
An informative read about the state of the world. Reading it in 2025, one must wonder how accurate some predictions are. Being an economist, the author does over simplify some issues (such as national security concerns around cross border data flows). However, the book does a good job of tying together a broader narrative that gives an explanation to the inflationary pressures and food insecurities being faced.
August 19, 2024
Rubin writes well, and clearly put a good amount of thought and effort into this book. It's an interesting read, even if the level of practical applicable advice will, for most of us, likely be "inflation isn't going away, don't be stupid with your money" but hey, the pessimist in me says that's a lesson it seems most would benefit from learning.
May 13, 2025
4 // Really enjoyed this book. It covers various perspectives and offer predictive outlooks on the less thought of aspects of world economics. It outlines the effects of international events like the war in Ukraine and the effects of US sanctions on eastern economies. The book is well written and easy to grasp. Author also dunks on Biden quite a bit but it never got to an unbearable point.
August 19, 2024
Too much of this book summarizes what you will already have seen in the business press for the last couple of years - useful if you have spent the time on a desert island somewhere, but I was impatient for the “so what” analysis at the end.
September 7, 2024
Pretty good! I enjoyed some of the analysis. But there was often a lack of citation and a reduction of complex topics to truisms that broke the immersion from time to time. Still worth it, I'd say, but it's not great as a stand-alone on any given topic.
May 29, 2024
I just couldn't get through this one. About 25% of the way through, I gave up. I'm sure there are some really important economic ideas here, but I just couldn't focus on it for some reason.
December 30, 2024
An excellent bird's-eye view. I would recommend following this book with "The Mandibles" by Lionel Shriver for a fictional view of what this may look like at ground level.
January 5, 2025
Mostly propaganda…
April 11, 2025
Jeff you have no idea what is coming in just a few years. This book made me more sad that it seems the world is screwed because we refuse to get along and work together.
May 20, 2025
We're screwed.
September 5, 2025
The book is full of useful insights. Having started this book before Mad King Trump, and finished after his trade wars kicked off, his more doom and gloom predictions seem much less unlikely than before.
I have no doubt at all that every problem identified by this book is real and deserves my constant attention. Like most readers, I feel the author's predictions are overstated, and never once says "here is a better solution".
Economists are terrific at identifying problems & forces that shape our future. This is a potent warning of what we should be concerned about and rally our societies to prevent.
I have no doubt at all that every problem identified by this book is real and deserves my constant attention. Like most readers, I feel the author's predictions are overstated, and never once says "here is a better solution".
Economists are terrific at identifying problems & forces that shape our future. This is a potent warning of what we should be concerned about and rally our societies to prevent.
Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews