The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy in Science and Inquiry

May 21, 2011 David Rubenstein rated it really liked it

Shelves: mathematics, technology, history

I think this is the first book about Bayes' theorem and its applications, for the general reader. The book does not explicitly state the theorem as a mathematical formula, until the second appendix. However, the general idea is described, as well the general ideas behind it. The history of the theorem is described in some detail.

The ebb and flow in belief in the theorem over the course of 150 years is interesting. Applying Bayes theorem requires a prior probability, and this is often poorly know ...more

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Nov 30, 2015 Charlene rated it really liked it

Shelves: biography, constructs, decision-making, general-science, innovation

This was an excellent biography of Bayes' Rule, which basically glossed over Bayes himself. The author chose instead to examine the lesser known scientists and applications associated with Bayes. As a result, after reading this you are likely to call Bayes' Rule BLP Rule, for Bayes-Laplace Rule. The author was most interested in highlighting the work done by Pierre-Simone Laplace, who I feel I have come to know so much more after this biography. Prior to this book, Laplace came on my radar after This was an excellent biography of Bayes' Rule, which basically glossed over Bayes himself. The author chose instead to examine the lesser known scientists and applications associated with Bayes. As a result, after reading this you are likely to call Bayes' Rule BLP Rule, for Bayes-Laplace Rule. The author was most interested in highlighting the work done by Pierre-Simone Laplace, who I feel I have come to know so much more after this biography. Prior to this book, Laplace came on my radar after watching a Sean Carroll talk , listening toFrederick Gregory's lecture series, History of Science 1700 - 1900, and reading David Bodanis' e=mc2. (My memory indicated Bodanis included Laplace in his book, but attempts to confirm this have not been successful. Maybe credit is due another author. It is possible I have oddly attributed my knowledge of Laplace to someone who didn't even include him a book. Memory is so strange.).

I remember being a bit wowed and intrigued after first learning about Laplace; and yet, not doing any further research. What a shame that would have been. Laplace was an exceptional scientist. He not only came up with Bayes Rule by himself, but he also did more work than Bayes to contribute to humankind's understanding of probability, fought vigorously to separate religion and scientific inquiry, insisted on facts over belief, and was extremely productive in developing a foundation for statistics-- despite receiving so little reward. You will be treated to how, as a thank you from society, his life and reputation were ruined. Poor Laplace.

The author also provided a fairly good biography of other contributors to Bayes' Rule development and application throughout history. The rule itself was extremely unpopular. It's successes were hidden in wartime to protect war secrets. Those who used it were often bullied by the larger statistics community. And yet, the theory lived on, often under the radar, to continue helping researchers solve the hard problems. When the author provided a survey of how Bayes was used, I was familiar with the instances she highlighted but didn't realize Bayes was the method used to solve the problems at hand.

Since the author included, what I can only imagine, was every instance in which Bayes was employed, at times I felt like, "Yes, I have got it. Move on." I got a bit bored at times during the last few chapters. However, I think it would be unfair to criticize a book for including too much information about the focus subject:)

This was solid research, lots of it, that created a very thorough biography of the Rule/Theory itself. ...more

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Dec 03, 2013 Stephen rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

The triumph of Bayesian methods

A well written overview of the ups and downs leading to the final victory of Bayesian methods over frequency methods.

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