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Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

Ian Ayres

Start date: July 6, 2013

Finish date: July 21, 2013

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Sep 07, 2012 Dolly rated it really liked it

Shelves: science, math, 2013, nonfiction

Fascinating look at the role of statistics and data sets today. Although the book was first published in 2007, the information still seems to be very relevant and up-to-date.

I loved the quiz on p. 113 that tested a person's ability to make unbiased estimates. It's shocking how inaccurate and overconfident I was with my own estimates.

Overall, I thought this was a well-written and researched book that really opens my eyes to the predictability of our world based on statistical data regression. It' Fascinating look at the role of statistics and data sets today. Although the book was first published in 2007, the information still seems to be very relevant and up-to-date.

I loved the quiz on p. 113 that tested a person's ability to make unbiased estimates. It's shocking how inaccurate and overconfident I was with my own estimates.

Overall, I thought this was a well-written and researched book that really opens my eyes to the predictability of our world based on statistical data regression. It's intriguing enough to make me consider pursuing this concept further.

interesting quotes:

"It's so cheap to test and retest alternatives that there's no good reason to blindly accept the wisdom of academic axioms." (p. 55)

"Dozens of studies dating back to 1989 found little support for many of the tests commonly included in a typical annual physical for symptom-less people. Routine pelvic, rectal, and testicular exams for those with no symptoms of illness haven't made any difference in overall survival rates. The annual physical exam is largely obsolete. Yet physicians insist on doing them, and in very large numbers." (p. 87)

"The openness of the Internet is even transforming the culture of medicine. The results of regressions and randomized trials are out and available not just for doctors but for anyone who has time to Google a few keywords. Doctors are feeling pressured to read not just because their (younger) peers are telling them to, but because increasingly they read to stay ahead of their patients." (p. 95)

"Osler would be turning in his grave at the thought of Google diagnoses and Google treatments because the Internet disrupts the dependence of young doctors on the teaching staff as the dominant source of wisdom. Young doctors don't need to defer to the sage experience of their superiors. They can use sources that won't take joy in harassing them." (p. 96)

"...Steve Levitt, looking at statistics, pointed out that 'on average, if you own a gun and have a swimming pool in the yard, the swimming pool is almost 100 times more likely to kill a child than the gun is.'" (p. 112)

"So humans not only are prone to make biased predictions, we're also damnably overconfident about our predictions and slow to change them in the face of new evidence." (p. 114)

"Power and discretion are definitely shifting from the periphery to the Super Crunching center. But that doesn't mean Super Crunchers are going to find they have an easier time dating." (p. 169)

"The slow erosion of the private sphere makes it harder to realize what is happening and rally resistance. Like a frog slowly boiling to death, we don't notice that our environment is changing." (p. 179)
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in the Notes section: "It is time for the scientific community to stop giving alternative medicine a free ride. There cannot be two kinds of medicine - conventional and alternative. There is only medicine that has been adequately tested and medicine that has not, medicine that works and medicine that may or may not work." (p. 229) [by Marcia Angell and Jerome Kassirer, former editors-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine]

new words: heteroskedasticity, foreordain, quantiphobes, pellucid, polymath, curtilage, innumeracy

...more

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Mar 02, 2009 MsSmartiePants ...like the candy... rated it it was amazing

What a book! Shockingly good! I heard about this book while listening to The World is Flat by Thomas Freidman. Immediately, I made a mental note to find and read this book about the impact of computing power on everyday lives. Algorithms, formulas, yikes! (I have a bit of a math phobia.) Thank goodness this book breaks down complex ideas into understandable and applicable explanations.
A wide variety of stories about how the computer is enabling huge changes in our schools, businesses, purchases ...more

1 like · Like · see review

Dec 06, 2009 Jim rated it really liked it

Shelves: audiobooks-read

if you like this you might like thisThe Numerati

interesting but less specific in terms of the math.
...more

Like · see review

Feb 25, 2009 Clark rated it really liked it

Jul 26, 2019 Tricia Spoonts marked it as to-read

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