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2019 TOB General Topics > 2019 Shortlist Predictions

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message 1: by Amy (last edited Nov 28, 2018 05:23PM) (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Hi folks! We're kicking off the Shortlist Prediction Contest again and this year Andrew (from TOB) has some swag for us!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...

post & tweak your guesses up till Dec 31st at which point I'll freeze a snapshot for final calcs. Please stick to just your column.
Points are based on # of books correct in 'official' shortlist and the play-in round with correct shortlist books = 1pt, correct play-ins = 2pts, correct book in wrong spot = 0.5pt.
If we need a tie-breaker, I've got a weighted calculation by # of unique picks (books no one but you picked) but if we have enough players that this doesn't occur, I'll change it to weight by rarity of selection.

Have fun!


message 2: by Alison (new)

Alison Hardtmann (ridgewaygirl) | 760 comments Thanks for setting this up!


message 3: by Joe Sherry (new)

Joe Sherry | 38 comments Alright - I am in and I am ready to lose! I am also ready to keep tweaking my picks for the next month.


message 4: by Bretnie (new)

Bretnie | 717 comments I love that you have "Titles that start with F" as the sample play-in. :)


message 5: by Jason (last edited Dec 13, 2018 09:01AM) (new)

Jason Perdue | 688 comments So, I guess this got screwed up by having the shortlist come out today. I didn't even finish filling in my column.

https://themorningnews.org/article/th...


message 6: by Lljones (new)

Lljones | 176 comments Amy, I copied the spreadsheet to my harddrive at 1:15 PST, in case you didn't get a chance to snapshot it. I'll leave it unopened and send to you if you like.


message 7: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments I just froze the guesses - will work on figuring out the winner tonight.
So sorry to everyone this caught us unawares. I mean Yay that the shortlist is early and Boo that the contest was impacted.
Tina and I will sync closer with Andrew next year and fix this!!

So now - onto bracket predictions for folks!


message 8: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments whoa. Colin entered only 8 books & he managed to get 6 right!

C is our leader with # of books correct (9) but also for my guesses at the seeds (which I weight). We'll have to wait for the bracket to be certain as there are a small handful of folks with 8 correct guesses but it's looking like C is our best prognosticator!


message 9: by [deleted user] (new)

Well done, C!


message 10: by Bretnie (new)

Bretnie | 717 comments Wow, I got 7, which considering how many were on the long list feels like victory enough for me!


message 11: by C (new)

C | 795 comments Amy wrote: "whoa. Colin entered only 8 books & he managed to get 6 right!

C is our leader with # of books correct (9) but also for my guesses at the seeds (which I weight). We'll have to wait for the bracket ..."


Wait.... what what what? I didn't even finish adding the play in round books.... Milkman would have been one of my playin books, if I was able to add it in time before the short list was posted. I don't think I'll 'win' overall though, because I had no idea I was supposed to be adding them in by seeds? Or how to do that? I understand the seeds with ToB but had no idea how that was happening on the spreadsheet. haha. So yes, I will be honored if I win overall and really appreciate that.


message 12: by Alison (new)

Alison Hardtmann (ridgewaygirl) | 760 comments C wrote: "Amy wrote: "whoa. Colin entered only 8 books & he managed to get 6 right!

C is our leader with # of books correct (9) but also for my guesses at the seeds (which I weight). We'll have to wait for ..."



Congratulations!


message 13: by Jason (new)

Jason Perdue | 688 comments Well, I got 7 with only entering 10 books. I think i would have only got one more if I had completed it.


message 14: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments I struggled to guess at seeds with the shortlist - so many are relative unknowns & I don't truly see any as Seed 1's except for winning the NBA & having NPR PR. Even the Booker winner I hadn't heard previous buzz or seen it in circulation.


message 15: by Jason (new)

Jason Perdue | 688 comments If you want my opinion, I don't think House of Broken Angels is a 1 Seed. It's been very popular in our ToB group, but it's not a huge seller, hasn't gotten nearly as much press as many of these, and isn't on any year-end lists that I've seen. Washington Black just keeps winning prizes and The Overstory has to be the PR book of the year. Even Warlight has the weight of Ondaatje (has he ever been in the ToB?)


Nadine in California (nadinekc) | 763 comments Jason wrote: "If you want my opinion, I don't think House of Broken Angels is a 1 Seed. It's been very popular in our ToB group, but it's not a huge seller, hasn't gotten nearly as much press as many of these, a..."

You've made me glad that I picked it as my zombie :)


message 17: by Elizabeth (new)

Elizabeth Sund | 27 comments House of Broken Angels was my zombie pick too. Reading it was such a pleasure!


message 18: by Janet (new)

Janet (justjanet) | 721 comments That makes 3 of us.


message 19: by [deleted user] (last edited Dec 14, 2018 03:44PM) (new)

I voted for HoBA too, though I hope and expect it will make it to the finals without having to rise from the dead.


message 20: by Neale (new)

Neale  | 122 comments Amy wrote: "whoa. Colin entered only 8 books & he managed to get 6 right!

C is our leader with # of books correct (9) but also for my guesses at the seeds (which I weight). We'll have to wait for the bracket ..."


I feel it is a case of Beginner's Luck. I'm so glad that I joined this group having really only ever followed the booker. This is so much fun!


message 21: by Ruthiella (new)

Ruthiella | 382 comments Collin wrote: "I'm so glad that I joined this group having really only ever followed the booker. This is so much fun! ..."

And its only just BEGUN! :D


message 22: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Hey C! With the bracket released, your initial win becomes official! I friend-requested you so we can DM your preferred method to connect to Andrew Womack of TOB swag-fame.

Congratulations and nice job! we'll have to pay close attention to your bracket predictions!


message 23: by C (new)

C | 795 comments Amy wrote: "Hey C! With the bracket released, your initial win becomes official! I friend-requested you so we can DM your preferred method to connect to Andrew Womack of TOB swag-fame.

Congratulations and ni..."


Oh goodie! I'm extremely thrilled. :D I really appreciate all the work everyone associated with the ToB puts into this crazy thing (including you, Amy!)


message 24: by Lark (new)

Lark Benobi (larkbenobi) | 199 comments Jason wrote: "If you want my opinion, I don't think House of Broken Angels is a 1 Seed. It's been very popular in our ToB group, but it's not a huge seller, hasn't gotten nearly as much press as many of these, a..."

House of Angels just got a maybe-boost by being shortlisted for the National Book Critics Circle award. The Mars Room is also on the shortlist, and There, There has already been awarded the First Book award. I think that's all the TOB overlap.


message 25: by Rachelnyc (new)

Rachelnyc | 61 comments Lark wrote: "House of Angels just got a maybe-boost by being shortlisted for the National Book Critics Circle award. The Mars Room is also on the shortlist, and There, There has already been awarded the First Book award. I think that's all the TOB overlap.."

I hope so since the House of Broken Angels is my favorite so far. I wish I had read it early enough for it to be my zombie pick. I haven't read Mars Room, Washington Black or Milkman yet though...


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