Cary Neeper's Blog: Reviewing World-changing Nonfiction - Posts Tagged "resources"

The End of Normal: The Great Crisis and the Future of Growth by James K. Galbraith, New York, Simon and Schuster, 2014.
This book came out at the same time steadystate.org was making a strong case that "Enough Is Enough." A book with that title by Rob Dietz and Dan O'Neill was published at the same time we released our fictional portrayal of how no-growth economics might work—the award-winner The Webs of Varok (http://archivesofvarok.com).

My shelves are full of excellent non-fiction written in the last four decades by experts in many fields that agree that we must learn to pull back, stabilize populations, and conserve resources—that economic growth is not sustainable in the long run.

Nowadays, no one dare talk about population limits, but it cannot be reasonably separated from our concern that resources are limited. We are already seeing water shortages. Surely we can now agree that classical economics is faulty in neglecting to apply resource availability and scarcity in their equations. Galbraith makes the detailed case, sharing how the equations lead to false conclusions.

He reviews the Soviet Union's demise and how it sends a shadow of parallel concerns with America's loss of post-World War II's booming economy. Things have changed, and we cannot expect to see business as usual. In the end, Galbraith preaches "slow growth," assuming that some economic growth is necessary because human greed and power drives must be assumed.

Given that assumption, I don't see much hope. I believe he is wrong. We are smarter than that. We know that nothing real grows forever. Given the chance for a decent existence, the human being is a remarkable creature, capable of selfless reasoning and brilliant creativity. Capable, even of saying, "Enough is enough."

We can understand how a population of germs can grown and prosper in a closed test tube filled with liquid nutrients. We seed the test tube with a few multiplying bacteria. We watch the population grow until the resources—the nutrient broth—is used up. We can understand why the population growth of the bacteria then slows, then drops to zero as the death rate increases. For a while a few mutants survive on the wastes, then they wink out.

Earth is our test tube, but we are know now that our resources are finite. Therefore, with willful restraint, we can keep them available over millennia by recycling and keeping count, by being watchful, resourceful and efficient in maintaining a comfortable status quo.

Already our population overload may seem overwhelming. It's true that technology will help, but only if it adds to our efficiency. It can't save us if we squander what Earth supplies. Growth—even slow growth—is not a long-term solution.

Neither is escaping to some other planet, for all but very few of us. Again, realism raises hard-to-grasp concepts. The time, energy and distances required to travel through the galaxy--even if we invent speed-of-light buses—are huge. We must take care of planet Earth, and tame our baser instincts to reproduce beyond reason.

The Next Species: the Future of Evolution in the Aftermath of Man by Michael Tennesen, New York, Simon and Schuster, 2015
This book gives us a visit to the tropical Andes to search for rare or dangerous or unknown species to illustrate the fear that we humans have triggered a massive extinction, followed by our own demise due to massive overpopulation and decimation of Earth’s natural resources.

The author reviews past extinctions, the losses and the opportunities for innovation that gave us new species. The role played by plate tectonics is noted, and the author tells the stories of his personal journeys in discovering the past from the Oldivoi gorge to current population growth in the world’s cities and the population explosion of human youth.

A history of farming is next, with our current nitrogen problem and its “overwhelming presence.” Disease—epidemics and resistance to antibiotics. Next, our oceans exhibit over fishing, acidification and warming plus fertilizer runoff. Shark numbers have declined, for one. Water availability and the misuse of land leads to a review of volcanoes and the changes that came with recovery of various disasters. Ocean problems are followed by the current demise of predators and the historical loss of large species to human hunting.

So we should move out to Mars? Is that topic really worth a whole chapter? In 50 to 100 years we could succumb to climate change, ocean acidification and invasive species. Then the author makes a remarkable statement about how man can stop “killing himself…we would have to push back from the table of reproduction, resource growth, and limit our use of natural resources.

Of course. Why not? That’s the solution the steady state economist Herman Daly has been developing since the 1970’s. Of course ecosystems will eventually recover from our demise, if our demise occurs—but why should it? We’re not stupid, are we?

The End of Normal: Why the Growth Economy Isn't Coming Back-and What to Do When It Doesn'tThe End of Normal by James K. Galbraith, New York, Simon & Schuster, 2014.
Galbraith begins by mentioning books published as a result of the 2008 debacle—“misfeasance both in government and in the banking sector.”

Galbraith reviews our economic theory, its history and the current worries about capitol takeovers and continuous upgrading, while insisting on growth as the world’s fix-all. He describes calls from both D. Meadows and Herman Daly for recognition of the limit to resources, but he dismisses them as forgetting the “power of new reserves, new technology, and resource substitutes.” He concludes that we must “preserve slow growth…below what cheap energy and climate indifference once made possible,” forgetting that nothing material can grow forever.

It will require “…careful investment and persistent regulation.” Decentralized banks should only “…support household consumption or business investment…in low-cost ways.” To avoid the winner-take-all inequality of high growth, the low-growth economy should be “…based on more decentralized economic units…supported by a framework of labor standards and secured protection. Then all could enjoy value…education, health care, elder care, art and sport.

It’s not Herman Daly’s carefully crafted steady-state ideal, but it is close. The driving force and stress coming from continually growing human populations could easily overwhelm his slow-growth, equitable economic plans.

Lester R. BrownWorld on the Edge--How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse by Lester R. Brown, WW Norton and Co. N.Y. 2011.

Early studies have concluded that human demands on Earth’s resources exceeded its natural systems in 1980 and in 2007 exceeded Earth’s “sustainable yields by 20 percent.” In contrast, economic date of about 2010 showed a “10-fold growth in world economy since 1950. The fourfold increase in world income was celebrated.

That is good news, Lester Brown tells us in 2011, until we realized that Earth’s recent environmental declines suggest inevitable economic and social collapse following the shrinking of Earth’s forests, soils, aquifers, fisheries and high temperatures

Brown’s Plan B focused on cutting global carbon emissions, stabilizing the human population at 8 billion by 2040, eradicating poverty, and restoring forests, soil, aquifers, and fisheries. Costs, he said, were 1/8 of the 2011 world military spending.

What were we thinking? He also predicted that by 2020 up to 60 million people would migrate from Sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe. CO2 emissions should be cut to 400 ppm by 2020 so we can reduce it to the 350 ppm recommended. In 2020 a worldwide carbon tax of $200 per ton could be offset by reduction in income taxes. An additional $200 billion could restore Earth’s national systems, by 2020 we should stabilize population and eradicate poverty--paid for by “updating the concept of national security. How different are questions for the world now? It’s already 2020.

Brown’s ideas could still help, if we could change our individual focus. CO2 emissions per passenger mile on high speed trains are about 1/3 those of cars and 1/4 of planes. Do we have to be slaves to saving time? We have been using more solar and building more efficient buildings, but we need to do more. The oceans are filling with plastic, People are desperate for food and safety on too many places for too many wrong reasons. In 2011 government were spending $500 billion per years to subsidize the use of fossil fuels. Simple requirements like rooftop solar, water heaters and energy efficient building.

Brown’s ideas are simple once fully realized. They could reverse the downward trend we have taken since 2011. Think wind, solar and geothermal, a tax on carbon. Raise gasoline taxes and cut income taxes. We could still do it--build a new economy--carbon free. Oystein Bahle of Exxon Norway noted that “Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow the market to tell the economical truth.

WW Norton and Co, New York, 2004.

When this book was published, 16 years ago!, climate change was “widely discussed,” the author wrote, but “…we are slow to grasp its full meaning…there is no normal to return to.”

Listening to the evening news makes it clear that we are still not grasping what we need to be doing. In 2004 Brazil was the “…only country with the potential to expand world cropland area measurably.” and now? What is happening in Brazil? Have we already outgrown the Earth and failed to recognize that fact?

In 2004, “falling water tables and rising temperatures” were already slowing the growth of world food production. Lester Brown’s list of “environmental fallout from overuse” goes on and on, on page 8.

Mortality and fertility of humans were “…essentially in balanced in some countries, and others were able to “reduce family size” quickly. Has it been enough? Have fisheries continued to collapse, as Brown saw.? Have the world’s range lands been overgrazed in 2020?

Earth’s productivity was increasing in 2004. What are we doing now to recycle plant nutrients, as we did when “the world was largely rural? Are we we using crop residues, animal manures, soil rebuilding, leguminous plants? Have we learned to avoid overgrazing and overplowing?

Have we confronted the fact that in 2004 “…waste tables are falling in scores of countries…”? Are we all being efficient by using drip irrigation? Are all our choices water-efficient? No more water wasting coal-fired power plants? Recycling urban water supplies?

Stabilizing water tables was urgent in 2004, and now as urgent as stabilizing global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Sea levels will rise. It’s probably too late to stop that. Wind energy is being used now, but is it enough? How can we reduce our use of electricity--everywhere?

In 1991 the U.S. Dept. Of Energy concluded that three states alone could provide the entire nation’s electricity needs. As we deal with the pandemic of 2020 and plan to rebuild the future, there will be chances to rethink and reinvest more wisely the way we use Earth’s gifts. The lessons are clear in books such as this one.