By Galen Druke and Nate Silver and Galen Druke and Nate Silver












 












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Governments across the United States and around the world have relied on forecast models in planning their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this special edition of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Dr. Chris Murray — who created the frequently cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model — discusses how he went about building his model and the challenges he has encountered. Murray says honing the IHME model has been an ongoing process as new data about the virus has emerged as it spread.

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