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Cirle the date: January 2031
CIRCLE THE DATE: JANUARY 2031
In nine and a half years a comet measuring nearly 250 miles across will emerge from the darkness of deep space and reach its closest point to the sun: 10.9 astronomical units, or roughly a billion miles. It won't be a close call for Earth, not by any stretch of the imagination, but the alien visitor will affirm an old truth. Lurking "out there" are objects that may have our name on them.
The comet in question is officially designated C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), in case you're interested, and was discovered by two University of Pennsylvania astronomers. The object has been traveling through our galaxy since the earliest days of the universe and will continue doing so until it either disintegrates after passing close to the sun too many times or -- sorry for the pessimism -- slams into another object.
Now here's an interesting issue for you to consider. Most scientists claim there's an incredibly low probability that a gigantic comet or asteroid will strike Earth anytime soon. But they base this assumption on history. In other words, they look at past asteroid strikes, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and figure that past frequency helps us understand future frequency.
But is that a reasonable assumption? I'm not convinced.
The motion of comets and asteroids is governed in part by random events. For example, two objects in the asteroid belt collide, and one is sent zipping off in Earth's direction. Since we don't know when such a collision will occur, we can't possibly know when a threatening object will come our way. It might be a year from today, or it could be 20 million years.
And then there are objects that come from beyond our solar system. These are chunks of alien rock that have been thrown from other solar systems or galaxies and have been traveling for millions or billions of years. Sometimes we see them years in advance. On the other hand, sometimes we don't see them until they either hit our planet or explode in our atmosphere. Hunting for near-Earth objects is a full-time job for a great many scientists using sophisticated telescopes of every kind, but it's an imperfect science that often borders on art. There's no guarantee the "big one" will be detected in time for us to do anything about it.
I don't lie awake at night worrying about being hit by an asteroid or comet. But I do consider such things when I write. In my next book -- the working title is THE VIRGO PARADOX -- I consider some of the possibilities, both positive and negative.
I'm incorporating as much scientific fact as I can into my fiction this time, hoping to avoid the kind of pure silliness that often turns up in sci-fi movies. When the book is released later this year, you'll get to judge how well I succeeded.
In nine and a half years a comet measuring nearly 250 miles across will emerge from the darkness of deep space and reach its closest point to the sun: 10.9 astronomical units, or roughly a billion miles. It won't be a close call for Earth, not by any stretch of the imagination, but the alien visitor will affirm an old truth. Lurking "out there" are objects that may have our name on them.
The comet in question is officially designated C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), in case you're interested, and was discovered by two University of Pennsylvania astronomers. The object has been traveling through our galaxy since the earliest days of the universe and will continue doing so until it either disintegrates after passing close to the sun too many times or -- sorry for the pessimism -- slams into another object.
Now here's an interesting issue for you to consider. Most scientists claim there's an incredibly low probability that a gigantic comet or asteroid will strike Earth anytime soon. But they base this assumption on history. In other words, they look at past asteroid strikes, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and figure that past frequency helps us understand future frequency.
But is that a reasonable assumption? I'm not convinced.
The motion of comets and asteroids is governed in part by random events. For example, two objects in the asteroid belt collide, and one is sent zipping off in Earth's direction. Since we don't know when such a collision will occur, we can't possibly know when a threatening object will come our way. It might be a year from today, or it could be 20 million years.
And then there are objects that come from beyond our solar system. These are chunks of alien rock that have been thrown from other solar systems or galaxies and have been traveling for millions or billions of years. Sometimes we see them years in advance. On the other hand, sometimes we don't see them until they either hit our planet or explode in our atmosphere. Hunting for near-Earth objects is a full-time job for a great many scientists using sophisticated telescopes of every kind, but it's an imperfect science that often borders on art. There's no guarantee the "big one" will be detected in time for us to do anything about it.
I don't lie awake at night worrying about being hit by an asteroid or comet. But I do consider such things when I write. In my next book -- the working title is THE VIRGO PARADOX -- I consider some of the possibilities, both positive and negative.
I'm incorporating as much scientific fact as I can into my fiction this time, hoping to avoid the kind of pure silliness that often turns up in sci-fi movies. When the book is released later this year, you'll get to judge how well I succeeded.
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