By David K. Shipler 

            PANAMACITY, PANAMA—If President Trump takes over the Panama Canal, a wish he keeps pushing,he will be able to disrupt a significant chunk of global trade at his whim,rewarding and punishing countries he happens to like or dislike, as he has donewith various measures in his first few weeks in office. The canal’s neutrality,enshrined in a US-Panama treaty, would be in jeopardy, and this shortcutbetween the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans would be compromised.

            On a tripthrough half the canal’s length last Sunday, and in subsequent research in twomuseums, I learned how easy it would be to weaponize the vital waterway. Whilemost cargo through the canal is part of US trade, Trump could force longwaiting times on certain other vessels, impose different fees for differentcountries, or even bar passage to ships transporting goods to or fromdisfavored nations.

That is, he could add the canal asa tool in the global and domestic protection racket that he has already devisedwith on-and-off tariffs, interrupted military aid, funding cuts to schools anduniversities, sanctions against lawyers who oppose him, and the like. Nothingin his behavior, even toward his own citizens, suggests that he would respectthe Panama Canal’s universal accessibility, which served 170 countries last year.

Although Trump has railed against whathe calls the high transit fees charged by Panama, it’s a good bet that his long-termdesire is less about money than political leverage. His method of politicalleverage, based on bullying, would risk a popular backlash in Latin America,especially in Panama, and undermine US standing in the region.

Furthermore, the canal has waterproblems that only Panama can address from outside the strip that Trump wantsto own.

The thoroughfare relies on fresh waterfrom rivers and manmade lakes that also supply Panama’s growing population, so acompetition for a precious resource has to be managed by the government and theCanal Authority. Because the canal crosses an isthmus created by volcaniceruptions about 3 million years ago, the land between the oceans is high inplaces, navigated through a series of locks that raise ships from the Caribbeanby 85 feet, then lower them to the Pacific.

No pumps are needed. The waterflows naturally into the canal and then, as the locks’ enormous gates areopened for each vessel, about 52 million gallons of fresh water course down fromthe chambers into the sea. When a drought hits, as it did in 2023, fewer shipsare allowed to transit.

The Canal Authority could gobble upmore water, but that would deprive Panamanians. Let’s guess how much Trumpwould care about water supplies for the people of Panama. A promised solution,under the authority’s plans, would dam the Rio Indio, west of the canal,displacing some 12,000 people for a new reservoir—a six-year, $900-million project.The residents have been protesting; they’re being promised relocation to newfarmlands. Let’s guess how sensitive Trump would be to their plight.  

The canal is the product of dreams.In 1534, King Charles V of Spain senta team to survey a route, but it was deemed impossible. In 1869, PresidentUlysses S. Grant ordered a survey; as an army captain, he had led a unit of menand their families across the isthmus on the way to California. Cholera killed150 of them. In the late 1800s, France began a sea-level canal, but the depthof required excavations to cut through the highlands stymied the project, whichran out of money. The company was sold to the US, which completed the canalwith locks in 1914 and operated it until a transfer to Panama began afterPresident Jimmy Carter signed twotreaties in 1977. The turnover was highly controversial, with mostRepublicans adamantly opposed. Ratification, requiring two-thirds of the Senate,barely passed, 68-32.

One treaty provided joint managementuntil final transfer to Panama in 1999. The other commits both the US andPanama to “the neutrality of the Canal in order that both in time of peace andin time of war it shall remain secure and open to peaceful transit by thevessels of all nations on terms of entire equality, so that there will be nodiscrimination against any nation, or its citizens or subjects, concerning theconditions or charges of transit …”

Trump has shown no compunctionabout violating US laws, regulations, and international agreements, so the twotreaties are, in practice, subject to his whim. How he would take the canal isa question, though. By whatever means, “there would be war,” one experiencedcanal worker told me. “Panama has many friends.”

Then, too, running the canal requiresa plethora of skills, as anyone who sails through it can see. Timing shiptraffic is tricky, and repairs to locks cannot be deferred. Some ten thousandworkers are employed in specialized fields, including hydraulics, electricalsystems, welding, water management, computer operation, and marine piloting ofenormous vessels in confined spaces. Mishaps are a constant danger, with thepossibility of catastrophic consequences. If the US seized the canal andPanamanian workers boycotted, the waterway would be closed for as long as ittook the Trumpists to find and train replacements.

Panama’s government makes moneyfrom the canal, which apparently rankles Trump as he rants about fees. Infiscal year 2024, the CanalAuthority’s revenue totaled $4.99 billion, with a net income of $3.45billion, of which $2.47billion went to Panama’s national treasury, 8 percent of the government’sbudget. That’s not peanuts for Panama, but it’s less than four-hundredths ofone percent of the US federal government’s $6.5 trillion budget, not enough tomove the needle. Canal tolls averaged just $11.80 per ton of cargo.

            The feesare computed by complicatedformulas that begin with base rates of $15,000 for the smallest ship to$300,000 for the largest vessels that can fit through the newest locks. Tothose rates are added fees per unit of cargo capacity or actual loads—forexample, $2.05 per cubic meter of liquid natural gas in an enormous tanker, and$3.50 for a smaller ship; $2.75 per ton for a huge vehicle carrier, $6.00 forthe smallest ship. Loaded containers are charged from $35 to $45 each.

            Additional feesinclude mandatory tugs, running from $2,000 to $30,000, depending mainly on thesize of the ship; deck hands to secure lines; and $500 per cable attaching theship to locomotives running alongside the lock. Last Wednesday, a big SouthKorean auto carrier squeezed into a lock with no more than a foot or two ofspace on either side. In the hands of a canal pilot on the bridge and sixhighly skilled locomotive operators, the cables were constantly adjusted so theship threaded the needle perfectly and never even grazed the concrete walls. Thetoll added up to about $450,000, said a guide at the visitor’s center.

            The largestship to pass through the newest locks, completed in 2016 at a cost of $5.6billion, was as long as the Eiffel Tower and carried 13,926 containers. Thehighest toll so far, paid by the vessel Poland, was $1,205,511. The shipcarried 13,935 containers. A lot of money, but just $86.51 per container, notbad for saving the three to four weeks it would take between the Atlantic andPacific around Cape Horn. Ships have to wait an average of less than 24 hoursto enter the canal, whose 51 miles can be covered in 8 to 10 hours.

            You don’tneed warships to block the canal. All you have to do is commit passiveresistance: not provide a tug, not open a lock, and not do lots of other things.No wonder, when Trump reiterated his demand to retake the canal as he spoke toCongress last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio looked as if he had indigestion.