This is always a good time of year for a little bit of reflection, so today let us take a brief look at one of the big questions of independent publishing: where will it go next?

Recently, we have seen massive growth in the industry. Hundreds of thousands of self-published books have hit the shelves this year. The growth in the popularity of e-readers has undoubtedly helped writers publish their books cost effectively, and to get them to as many people as possible. Self-publishing companies are becoming more popular. More traditionally published authors are also looking to independent publishing. Self-published books have even hit the New York Times bestseller lists.

So what will happen next? One thing that’s certain is that this is a rapidly changing industry and it is in many ways unpredictable. One of the reasons for this is that we never know where the next big book or idea will come from. Still, we can still identify some trends and themes that are likely to continue into 2013 and beyond.

With this in mind, here are a few predictions. I’m sure some, if not most, of them will be wrong, but maybe just a couple of them will prove to have some truth in them. Please feel free to add your own predictions or thoughts in the comments box.

More bestseller lists will acknowledge self-published books. There’s no denying that some self-published books do just as well, if not better, than plenty of traditionally published books, and readers are increasingly likely to read them. It’s surely only a matter of time before they are incorporated into more lists, as seen this year in the New York Times etc.
More traditionally published authors will take to self-publishing. This doesn’t necessarily mean that they will abandon their book deals with the big publishers altogether, but there does seem to be some enthusiasm for the hybrid model of utilising different methods of publishing. It stands to reason that more writers will start to adopt different publishing approaches as the industry continues to change.
Self-publishing companies will continue to do well – but many authors will also choose to be entirely independent. We’ve seen big growth in self-publishing companies of late, but I also believe there is a good appetite for writers keen to do it all themselves, entirely independently.
Self-published books will become higher quality. Plenty of self-published books are now impressively professional, and this is something that’s surely set to continue. Independent publishers are generally a savvy bunch, and the need for a professional, high quality, well-written book is undeniable if you’re serious about making a career in the industry.
Marketing will diversify. With so many independent publishers out there, the need to develop new marketing strategies is pressing. There is a huge amount of competition, and authors need to do everything they can to stand out. Perhaps we’ll see a spot of ‘retro’ marketing, with a renewed focus on print editions, or authors will get ever savvier with their online marketing.

What do you think will happen to self-publishing in 2013 and beyond?