Evaluating my 2012 predictions: The good, the bad, and the hideous
Three hundred and sixty-five days ago, I offered 10 predictions for the year that ends on Monday. How’d I do?
In the name of transparency and feedback, I’ve listed my 2012 predictions below — along with a short evaluation indicated in blue.
“1. American Politics. In the 2012 presidential race, one candidate will win the popular vote but the other the Electoral College.”
EVALUATION: Dead wrong.
“2. Economics, I. On Election Day 2012, the US employment rate will be 8.1%. (Job growth will improve, but more discouraged workers will re-enter the labor force, pushing up the rate.)”
EVALUATION: Not bad. The unemployment rate on Election Day was actually 7.9%.
“3. Economics, II. In the 1970′s and 1980′s, America had U-shaped recoveries. In the 1990′s, we had a “Goldilocks recovery” (not too hot, not too cold). What’s happening now will be known as the “tortoise recovery” — heading in the right direction, but moving very, very slowly.”
EVALUATION: Pretty good. The American economy added 1.5 million new jobs, a chelonian pace and far slower than in previous recoveries.
“4. Business, I. A year from today, two out of these three entities will no longer exist: Groupon, Kodak, Newsweek.”
EVALUATION: Not bad. Newsweek just printed its last issue. Kodak entered bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Groupon’s stock is down 82% from its IPO and still hasn’t turned a profit.
“5. Business, II. The hot new investment area for venture capitalists will be synthetic biology.”
EVALUATION: Mostly wrong. There’s been some action, but not much.
“6. Technology. The year’s must-have technology product won’t be the iPad 3 or iPhone 5, but the Lytro camera.”
EVALUATION: Wrong. I couldn’t find sales figures, but by all accounts the response to the Lytro has been tepid.
“7. International affairs, I. The next big popular uprising — 2012′s version of Arab Spring — will take place in China.”
EVALUATION: Dead wrong.
“8. International affairs, II. The Cameron-Clegg coalition government in the UK will not survive through November.”
EVALUATION: Dead wrong.
“9. Culture. The year’s big novel will be Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk by Ben Fountain. (I read the manuscript last week. It’s amazing — Tom Wolfe meets Joseph Heller.)”
EVALUATION: Not bad. The book wasn’t a gargantuan hit, but it landed on more “Best of 2012″ lists than almost any novel published this year, was a National Book Award finalist, and got snapped up by Hollywood.
“10. Sports. The Washington Nationals will make the 2012 National League playoffs. You heard it here first.”
EVALUATION: Nailed it, even though the playoffs themselves ended in heartbreak. Two words for 2013: World Series.
